After a loud public outcry, Seattle’s police force abandoned its plans to deploy surveillance drones.  Virginia’s state government has imposed a two-year moratorium on the use of drones by police in the state.  In addition, 13 states are currently considering similar anti-drone legislation.  Meanwhile, online discussion groups have become rather aggressive, posting ways to interfere with the radio frequencies of drones circling overhead and even suggesting methods for shooting drones out of the sky. (New Scientist)

The question arises:  Will this sensitivity to being watched spread to Internet commercial monitoring?  So far, the answer is “not so much,” but it bears watching.

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Aging Global Population and Older Parents

• In 1980, median age of the world was 23.  According to the UN, by 2050 it will be 38.  In 1970, about half of the world’s population was younger than 20.  In 2011, that it was a little more than one-third of the population.  The number of people older than 65 increased from 5 percent to 9 percent between 1970 and 2011.
• Fertility has fallen below replacement rates in the majority of the 224 countries from which the UN collects data.
• China in 2010 had just 11.3 people over 65 for every 100 people in the working age population, less than half of Britain’s 25.1 and the U.S.’s 19.9.  The UN estimates that by 2045, China will be at 39, almost the same as Britain and above the 34.6 forecast for the U.S.
• American first time mothers have aged about 4 years since 1970 (25.4 from 21.4).  College educated women have a 1-in-3 chance of having first child at 30 or older.  The average age of American man when he becomes a father is between 27 and 28.

Potential implication: Countries will need to change immigration policies and aggressively pursue immigrants.

Potential implication: Resource demand will potentially plateau or decline

Economic effects on older Americans 

• Americans in their 50s and 60s have lost the most earnings power of any group, with household incomes 10 percent below what they made when the recovery began.
• Over the last year, the average duration of unemployment for older workers was 53 weeks, compared to 19 weeks for teens.
• Just one in six older workers who were laid off during the recession had found another job and half of that group had accepted pay cuts.  Fourteen percent said the new job paid less than half of previous job.
• More than one in every eight  people in late 50s is now on some form of disability.
• Prescriptions for patients 65 and older declined 3.1 percent in 2011.

Potential implication: Safety nets will be tested (and needed) more than ever before.

Potential implications:  Those that are older and out of work will cut back on everything.

Work longer

• Number of workers 75 and older has increased by 76.7 percent in the past 2 decades.  They were 7.6 percent of the workforce last year, up from 4.3 percent in 1990.
• 30 percent of Americans now plan to work until 80 or older, up 25 percent from A YEAR AGO in a survey of adults with incomes less than $100,000.
• Respondents in a recent survey said they will need a median of $300,000 in savings to support themselves in retirement, the average amount currently saved is only $25,000.  Fidelity claims that medical bills alone through retirement will cost $240,000 per couple in retirement.
• As of 2011, more than 36 percent of employees at state level and more than 35 percent at the local level were over age 50.

Potential Implication: Harder for Millennials to get into the work force and when they do, there will be a knowledge gap.

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New Jersey, once the premier gambling destination on the east coast, was surpassed in gambling revenues by Pennsylvania in 2012.  Atlantic City’s newest casino, Revel, just declared bankruptcy.

Three casinos have opened in Ohio since 2009, with another set to open next month in Cincinnati.  Michigan now has 22 casinos run by autonomous Indian tribes. Meanwhile, tax revenue from neighboring Indiana’s 13 betting sites has declined every year since 2009.

States, and casinos, are beginning to respond.  The Borgata Hotel Casino in Atlantic City will be the first U.S. establishment to allow guest-room gambling on slots and poker via a television and remote control.   New Jersey, which recently approved gambling on handheld devices, is considering legalizing Internet gambling and wants to legalize sports betting in the state.

In Indiana, a bill by a state Senator would allow casinos to keep a greater percentage of revenue and allow state gambling riverboats to move inland.

While states continue to sanction and build more casinos, how long will operators see opportunity in building them?

We expect that states will attempt to move more aggressively toward online gambling to expand their pool of potential players.   With competition for gamblers growing throughout the country, we  also expect other states’ casinos to join New Jersey in ramping up technology capabilities in an attempt to gain a competitive advantage.

The big question is, will the Borgata deliver free drinks to the room?

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We are slowly but steadily increasing our understanding that many of the maladies being suffered by children (and adults) are of our own making. In these kinds of areas, will knowledge be sufficient to change behavior?  Will public officials or regulators get involved?

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This practice of taking executive recruiting in-house has produced substantial cost savings at GE, as well as Coke, Pfizer, Microsoft and Nike.  This new way of operating is one example of what we have termed Rampaging Efficiencies at U.S. companies.  But while it has produced savings in the tens-to-hundreds of millions of dollars at these corporations, it has resulted in substantial revenue declines at the talent-search companies.  No wonder the search giants are now acquiring leadership consulting companies in an effort to broaden revenue streams.  What happens when the corporate in-house recruiters also branch into in-house leadership consulting?

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In Texas, Allan Ritter, a Republican and chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, proposed bills that would withdraw $2 billion from the state’s Rainy Day Fund to establish a water infrastructure bank that would lend money for projects dedicated to the state’s 50-year water plan. His proposals received support from Republican leaders, the Sierra Club’s Texas chapter and the Texas Association of Business. (read the article)

 
Texas Republicans’ inclination is to reduce government involvement when markets can be involved, but, in this instance, previously opposing forces are cooperating to deal with what are perceived to be structural challenges. Water is essential to commerce, agriculture, energy and consumers. Current Texas politicians perceive water as too important of a commodity to be left to the markets to allocate and price.

How long will this perspective about water last?  Will other states follow?

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The following are some recent facts and events that begin to illustrate the new reality of housing- that the majority of new construction will be multi-family, smaller and in cities.

New American Lifestyles

• There are two million  more adults ages 18-34 living under their parents roof last year than four years ago.
• 80 percent of units now have one bedroom. In the past, 60 percent had two bedrooms
• New units are as small as 500 square feet in Houston, even smaller in San Francisco and New York City.
• Married couples with children make up under one in four households today
• Between 2010 and 2011, 86.5 percent of small metro areas saw an increase in the number of people living in the city.
• Cities in the smallest metro areas (150,000-250,000 people) saw the largest increase in people within their boundaries.
• Cities in small metro areas grew in population by 0.89 percent outpacing suburb growth by 0.67 percent.
• Small metro cities are seeing more growth then big cities. 55 percent of cities in small metro areas grew at a faster rate than their suburban counterparts between 2010 and 2011. 51 percent of cities in large metro areas added population at a greater rate than their suburbs.
• The nation added more than 2 million households in the 12 months that ended March 31 about triple the average for the previous four years. Most of the gains came from baby boomers. – divorce?
• The number of people ages 25-29 who moved across state lines reached its highest level in 13 years

Multifamily housing

• Multifamily construction is two-thirds of the way back to prerecession peak.
• New apartment complexes are going up at fastest rate since July 2008
• In Houston, from January to September, construction permits for multifamily housing increased by more than 70 percent over the year earlier.

Single family housing

• Single fam construction is one-third back to peak
• Houston permits for single family increased 25 percent from Jan to Sept.

Economy and General Housing

• Net worth increase by $1.7 trillion in Q3
• Households got $301 billion bump in value of real estate assets
• Case-Schiller 20 home index has risen month over month for 6 months with four consecutive monthly year over year gains.
• Jobless rate of those ages 25-34 dropped from 9 percent at start of the year to 7.9 in November

• There have been 559,000 home seizures in 2012. The Fed Reserve Bank of NY had estimated as many as 1.8 million properties would be taken back this year.   Foreclosures are at a five year low.
• Foreclosures and short sales made up 24 percent of October sales. The same level as September but down 28 percent from a year earlier.
• There were 2.14 million existing homes for sale in October, down 1.4 percent from September. That translates to a 5.4 month supply at the current sales rate, the lowest level since February 2006.
• The number of residential properties for sale in the U.S. shrank to the lowest level in a decade. Prices have appreciated in the fastest pace since 2005.
• Median price of an existing home sold in October jumped 11 percent from a year earlier, steepest annual increase since November 2005.
• Almost a quarter of all US homeowners with a mortgage are underwater
• Fed reserve is buying $40 billion in mortgages every month which is keeping rates low.

General home building

• Pace of home building rose to its highest level in more than four years in October. U.S. builders increased their spending on construction projects in October by the largest amount in 5 months. Level of spending is still considered low.
• Builder confidence in the housing market rose for the 8th straight month in December to its highest point in more than six years. Sentiment reading of 47, means more builders have a negative outlook than a positive one

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In eFocus 702 earlier this year, we noted how researchers are increasingly using viruses as “vectors” to reprogram patients’ DNA to cure hard-to-treat diseases, and we noted that in many such treatments, patients’ own immune systems are being prodded to treat the disease, rather than using powerful drugs. As 6-year-old girls start being saved in experimental versions of such treatment, we wonder if an era of increased medical efficiency and effectiveness is at hand.

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http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Warmer-winters-chill-ski-industry-4101277.php

We have written about the ways in which climate change and extreme weather impact food, water, energy and infrastructure, but there will be many other areas of impact as well, in this case labor markets and potentially winter-sports equipment and ski resorts.

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Most importantly, the Santa River which receives water from the glaciers, has passed its “peak water,” after which the amount of discharge from the glaciers drops off sharply.

The back story for the Peruvian experience is that agriculture was built up in recent years taking advantage of the glacial flow – just as the flow started to diminish.

This sets up a conflict for various users of the water, which is likely to be duplicated in many parts of the world so affected. The military has identified this conflict as central to future military conflict. At the very least, more efficient water-use will be a necessity for many years.

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