Public officials and media worldwide have paid considerable attention recently to developments around the H7N9 influenza, which, according to officials in China where the outbreak started, has killed 7 people and infected 24 others, most of whom suffered mild flu-like symptoms.  The virus is known to come from birds, like SARS back in 2003, but its genetic code has yet to permit it to jump from human to human – only from chickens to humans. Health officials at the Centers for Disease Control in the U.S. and the World Health Organization (WHO) are closely monitoring the viral outbreak.

All the news from China, notwithstanding, other developments have received much less attention but are likely to be much more impactful.  For instance, a new and mysterious coronavirus has surfaced in the Middle East, killing 11 people and infecting an unknown number so far.  The source of the virus is unknown, but it is killing those known to be infected at a rate of 40 percent. Meanwhile, medical researchers are noting that we face “nightmare bacteria” that are rapidly mutating beyond current antibiotic capabilities.  Roughly 5,000 patients die each year in English hospitals from drug-resistant sepsis.  In addition, the Centers for Disease Control reports that one-tenth of all infections from one family of bacteria, Klebsiella and 4 percent of all enterobacteriaceae infections are now antibiotic resistant, a fourfold increase in 10 years with a potent 40-percent kill rate.

The steady stream of media attention to developments around the H7N9 virus seems rather odd, given the larger and more risky outbreaks elsewhere in the world.  The issue is stranger because the very public focus on a Chinese virus, which has no cure, seems to be coming at the expense of human awareness of killer bacteria, where cures could be developed. 

But then, the chances of finding a cure for troubling bacteria have been declining lately. Since 2009, 8 major drug companies have abandoned research on and production of antibiotics, preferring, instead, to focus their research money on more lucrative chronic illnesses (e.g., diabetes and high-blood pressure).  Level-three studies for promising antibiotics often get postponed because of cost, and so, the three companies remaining in the field of antibiotic development have not received FDA approval for anything new lately, and thus, drug-resistant bacteria move forward. 

Nature seems to be taking advantage of human vulnerabilities, while companies that could address the problem are looking elsewhere.  Will governments need to step in?

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Until now, China’s rulers have been technocrats, specializing in the controlled build up and development of the country, primarily through large state-run companies and massive public-works projects.

But coming out of the most recent “election,” of the all-important seven-member Standing Committee of the Politburo, six men studied the social sciences and humanities in their post-secondary education, as compared to previous Standing Committees which were dominated by engineers and scientists.  For instance, Li Kequiang, who will replace “Grandpa” Wen Jiabao as Premier, has a Ph.D. in economics, and a masters and bachelors degrees in law.

Seemingly, the new leadership’s training prepares them more to deal with some of the major underlying social issues the country faces, including addressing inequality and delivering on the public’s desires for reforms that root out corruption and potentially give the public a greater say in how the country is run.

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Recently, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesmen told news agency RIA Novosti of Moscow’s intention to abandon the Nunn-Luger Cooperative Threat Reduction program, through which the U.S. has funded the decommissioning and disposal of excess and time-expired stocks of Russian nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and other strategic weapons since the 1990s.  The move comes just as Moscow announced its intention to recommence nuclear tests and is placing emphasis on arming attack submarines with nuclear cruise missiles.

This new rejection of a long-standing cooperation agreement with the U.S. and its resumption of offensive-armaments buildup seem to be part of Putin’s strategic turn away from the West, as well as a move to warn China.  As Russia continues its strategic shift from the West to the East, will this armament buildup eventually result in future deals with its Asian neighbors or will Russia be viewed as another regional threat?

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Meanwhile, in a Pew Global Attitudes Project survey, 36 percent of Chinese surveyed in 2007 said they reject the idea of American democracy, but in the survey this year, just 29 percent held that view.

As America gets swept up in today’s presidential election, it is easy to forget that China’s once-a-decade leadership transition begins this Thursday as well.  While at this time it is unclear if China’s incoming leaders will institute any reforms that might appeal to the Chinese people’s increasing interest in suffrage, it is important to remember that this leadership transition in Beijing is at least as important as today’s U.S. election, if not more so.

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Focus on Asia-Pacific as a long-term objective

• A congressional study published in August suggests that the U.S. considers the modernization of China’s navy an aggressive act.
• China has developed ballistic anti-ship missiles that are the first capable of striking aircraft carriers.
• China has launched three nuclear subs of its own design that are capable of firing nuclear-armed intercontinental missiles.
• The number of Chinese military-related patents has increased by an average of 35 percent per year during the last decade.
• U.S.  Marine Corps is moving troops to Asia/Pacific and will end up with 22,000 Marines west of the International Date Line
• The U.S. 7^th Fleet, the Navy’s largest and strongest force with more than 60 warships and around 40,000 personnel, is stationed in Japan and Guam.

Greater focus on Special Operations

• U.S. Special Operations forces are deployed in 75 countries, compared with about 60 at the beginning of last year.
• President Obama asked for a 5.7 percent increase in the Special Operations budget for fiscal 2011 (total $6.3 bil) plus an additional $3.5 billion in 2010 contingency funding.

Advanced drones

• The Air Force Chief of Staff General claims they will pursue “manned-unmanned” pairings, including using a manned Apache helicopter to control UAV or UAVs payloads.

Cyber War

• The U.S. military recently participated with other countries in the Cyber Endeavor- full on cyber warfare drill focused on protecting information in a collaborative environment.
• The Department of Defense is building cyber ranges (controlled battlefield environments) to evaluate cyber defense tools.

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That realization spurred action, and now China is the world’s leading practitioner of what is called the payment-for-ecosystems-services program – which essentially pays people to do what is good for the environment.  For instance, China pays farmers to reforest their land, hoping to slow soil erosion and the loss of valuable top soil due to poor agricultural practices. As a result of this one practice, Chinese officials, between 2000 and 2010, managed to increase the amount of forested land at the rate of 1.6 percent each year, a pace roughly three times faster than any other country in the world.  Beijing is also paying watchdogs to make sure the paid project actually happens.

Meanwhile, local governments have used the payment approach to protect water sources.  For instance, in some areas, local governments have passed laws that require anyone polluting a river upstream to compensate all those who suffer economic or health losses from that pollution downstream.

China’s program uses a software tool that measures overall costs of, say, cutting down a forest, including such secondary effects as erosion, additional risks of flooding, loss of carbon absorption area and so on.  With that information, Chinese officials are making economic decisions, and that model, which was actually developed at Stanford’s Natural Capital Project, is now being tried in Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico and Costa Rica.

(New Scientist, 6/16/12)

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